[VIDEO]What works to control COVID-19?: Econometric Analysis of a Cross-country Panel

Countries from around the world have used a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to suppress the spread of COVID-19. These include lockdowns of varying intensity and duration; efforts to test, track and isolate potential carriers of disease; and the use of masks and other social distancing policies. In this paper, we use cross-country panel data to examine the relationship between various NPIs and transmission rates of COVID-19 as captured by the reproduction rate (R[t]), including interventions not previously given attention. We find that while lockdown measures are strongly associated with a reduction in R(t), gathering bans appear to be more effective than workplace and school closures, both of which are associated with large declines in GDP. Further, our estimates suggest that stay-at-home orders are less effective in countries with larger family size and that efforts at ramping up testing and tracing COVID-19 cases are more effective in controlling the spread of disease in countries with greater coverage of paid sick leave benefits. As future waves of the disease emerge, control measures proven to be effective and with lower economic costs should be implemented early and fast. Such measures should also be central features of the “new normal” until herd immunity is achieved