Many investments and policy decisions in water management have significant and often long-term consequences. At the same, there are investments being made that influence adaptation requirements and long-term options to adapt. Therefore, making sound near-term decisions is critical—unfortunately, we live in an increasingly unpredictable dynamic world governed by competing and changing beliefs and preferences.
When decision makers and analysts face a deeply uncertain future (e.g., due to climate change), they need more than traditional prediction or scenario-based decision methods to help them to evaluate alternatives and make decisions.
In this seminar, Deltares’ Marjolijn Haasnoot presented an approach to support the development of an adaptive pathways plan that supports decision-making under deep uncertainty. She demonstrated its use for climate adaptation – explaining the steps to assessing vulnerabilities and opportunities, as well as identifying adaptation tipping points – and supporting climate resilient economic development, and provided lessons from 10 years of pathways studies in practice.
(Part 3 of the Collaborating on Innovative and Sustainable Solutions for Integrated Water Management Webinar Series)